Q1 2026 Update  ·  45 Premium Expressions

Bourbon 40+ Index

The definitive benchmark for collectible and investment-grade American whiskey. Tracking 45 premium expressions across tiers and styles since 2020.

Q1 2026 Index Value
$1,233.51
▲ +9.3% vs Q4 2025
Since 2020 (Cumulative)
+16.2%
▲ From $1,062 base
vs 2021 Peak
−9.0%
2021 peak: $1,355
vs 2023 Prior High
+1.5%
▲ $1,215 → $1,234
Advance / Decline — Q1 2026
25↑/14↓
Prior period (Q4 2025): 20↑ / 24↓

Index Performance
Full History: 2020 – Q1 2026

Equal-weighted average of 45 tracked expressions (excludes Old Rip Van Winkle 25 as a single-bottle outlier). Q1 2026 modestly edges above the 2023 level, while remaining below the 2021 peak.

Index Value Over Time (2020–Q1 2026)
Period-over-Period Change (%)
Historical Performance Summary
Period Index Value Period Change Cumulative Return Market Context
2020 (Base)$1,061.890.00%Index launch year
2021$1,355.13+27.61%+27.61%Cycle peak — bubble year
2022$1,248.93−7.84%+17.61%Correction begins
2023$1,215.33−2.69%+14.45%Continued softening
2024$1,117.96−8.01%+5.28%Market trough
End Q1 2025$1,099.80−1.62%+3.57%Stabilization
Mid Q2 2025$1,114.47+1.33%+4.95%Recovery signal
End Q2 2025$1,139.20+2.22%+7.28%Momentum building
Mid Q3 2025$1,150.82+1.02%+8.37%Steady recovery
End Q3 2025$1,116.09−3.02%+5.11%Seasonal softness
End Q4 2025$1,128.20+1.09%+6.24%Holiday consolidation
End Q1 2026$1,233.51+9.33%+16.16%Edges above 2023 level

Q4 2025 → Q1 2026
Winners & Losers

Biggest movers in the latest period. Aged single barrels and cask strength expressions led gains; accessible expressions continued to normalize. Note: many of these expressions trade infrequently at auction — prices reflect point-in-time snapshots and can be volatile between periods due to low transaction volume rather than fundamental value shifts.

Top Gainers — Q1 2026
01
William HeavenHill 15 Cask Strength
$3,220 → $4,628
+43.7%
02
Black Maple Hill 16 Yr Single Barrel
$4,600 → $6,325
+37.5%
03
Elijah Craig 23 Year Old Single Barrel
$738 → $1,000
+35.5%
04
Knob Creek 15 Year Limited Edition
$201 → $253
+25.9%
05
Jack Daniels Rested Rye
$206 → $258
+25.2%
Top Decliners — Q1 2026
01
Four Roses Limited Edition Small Batch (2017)
$460 → $345
−25.0%
02
Woodford Reserve Double Double Oaked
$230 → $196
−14.8%
03
Basil Hayden's 10 Year Old
$60 → $52
−13.3%
04
Eagle Rare 17 (2018)
$1,437 → $1,276
−11.2%
05
W.L. Weller 12 Year
$178 → $161
−9.6%

Comparative Performance
Bourbon 40+ vs. Global Benchmarks

Indexed to 100 at year-end 2020. American bourbon has significantly outperformed scotch and Japanese whisky indices over the full period, trailing only the Nasdaq.

Indexed Performance — Base 100 at 2020
Cumulative Return 2020 → Q1 2026
Benchmark Data Table
Index / Asset Class 202020212022202320242025Q1 2026 Cumulative
🥃 Bourbon 40+ Index (45 exp.) $1,062$1,355$1,249$1,215$1,118$1,128$1,234 +16.2%
Whisky Icon 100 (Scotch) 658789792679622555543 −17.5%
Japanese Whisky Index 532714810647471418396 −25.6%
Liv-Ex 100 (Fine Wine) 319393420360327313321 +0.6%
Wine Market Journal 150 2,6223,2382,8282,6572,5812,6562,702 +3.1%
Nasdaq Composite 12,88815,64510,46615,01119,72223,24122,105 +71.5%

All 45 Expressions
Index Components

Secondary market price data (USD). Q1 2026 column shows latest values with period change vs Q4 2025. Old Rip Van Winkle 25 is listed for reference but excluded from index calculations.

Expression 20202021202220232024 Q1'25MQ2'25EQ2'25MQ3'25EQ3'25Q4'25 Q1'26Chg

Market Intelligence
Q1 2026 Analysis

Key themes, drivers, and outlook for the premium bourbon secondary market.

Recovery Above 2023 — Not Yet at Peak

The index reached $1,233.51 in Q1 2026, edging +1.5% above the 2023 level ($1,215) on the back of strong cask strength and aged single barrel performance. However, the index remains roughly 9% below the 2021 cycle peak of $1,355, reflecting a market still working through post-bubble normalization.

Cask Strength & Age-Stated Leading

The clearest Q1 theme is bifurcation: ultra-aged and cask strength expressions dominated gains. William HeavenHill 15 CS (+43.7%), Black Maple Hill 16yr (+37.5%), and Elijah Craig 23yr (+35.5%) all surged, reflecting renewed collector appetite for rare, high-proof aged releases with demonstrable scarcity.

Value Tier Softening Continues

Mid-range and broadly available expressions continued to face headwinds. Four Roses LESB (−25%), Woodford Double Oaked (−14.8%), and Weller 12yr (−9.6%) reflect ongoing normalization of pandemic-era premiums as secondary supply remains elevated for accessible releases.

Pappy & Van Winkle Recovery

The Van Winkle family showed broad recovery in Q1: Old RVW 25 returned to $37,500, Pappy 23yr climbed to $3,622 (+16.7%), and Pappy 15yr reached $1,483. This signals the ultra-premium Pappy tier has found its floor after the 2024 correction and renewed demand from serious collectors.

vs. Global Alternatives

Bourbon 40+ (+16.2% since 2020) has significantly outperformed both Scotch (Whisky Icon 100: −17.5%) and Japanese whisky (−25.6%), as well as fine wine benchmarks (Liv-Ex: +0.6%). Only the Nasdaq (+71.5%) outpaces bourbon over the same period — though with substantially higher volatility.

Outlook

  • Ultra-premium allocated releases (BTAC, Van Winkle) likely to hold gains into Q2
  • Trade tariff uncertainty may dampen Scotch/Japanese, supporting domestic bourbon demand
  • Production oversupply narrative continues to weigh on mid-tier expressions
  • Age-stated & cask strength remain most compelling for collectors and investors
  • Full path to 2021 peak requires further normalization of the broad market
About
Brian Ward
Founder & Head of Bourbon

With over 15 years in the wine and spirits industry, I've had the privilege of working at the intersection of passion and investment — managing the Cask100 alternative asset fund, serving as Director of Wine & Spirits for Winston Artory Group, and most recently as Auction & Acquisition Advisor for K&L Wine Merchants.

Along the way I noticed a persistent gap: while scotch, Japanese whisky, and fine wine all had established tracking indices, American bourbon — one of the most actively traded collectible spirits — had none. The Bourbon 40+ Index is my attempt to fill that gap with rigorous, transparent data.

Get in Touch
bbward71@gmail.com